Election Day Eve Open Thread
The rubber meets the road tomorrow.
Nate Silver has put up a post detailing what a McCain victory looks like according to his simulations. The most likely McCain victory by his numbers is:
Oddly enough, the most likely Obama scenario is the 311 EVs I predicted.
Submitted by stinerman on Mon, 2008-11-03 09:19
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if PA goes to McCain
Obama supporters could be in for a long night. I'll remain optimistic until tomorrow night :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
If McCain wins California...
...it could be a landslslide!!!
Seriously man, Obama is closer to McCain in Mississippi than McCain is to Obama in Pennsylvania. It's not going to happen for McCain in the Keystone State.
skymutt: accept no substitutes!
There literally is no way for PA to go to McCain without
shenanigans.
I'm convinced of that.
When every single poll shows an 8+ lead, the mathematical odds against them ALL being wrong are astronomical.
I survived the Bush Administration
Have you seen this one?
It's just too cute
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxlwYP0HNdc
yeah, it was somewhat cute
heh
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Real world plans?
Anybody doing anything special for Election Night? There's stinerman's Mibbit chat
, but anyone doing anything in the real world? Parties and what not? I'll be making a Chicago-style Hawaiian pizza for dinner. Seems appropriate! Maybe I'll get some Arizona Ice Tea to be fair and balanced. Heh.
Possibly will have a couple of people over, but not confirmed yet. Might just be me and my wife. Hopefully it will be a happy celebration! I continue to be cautiously optimistic. I think there is at least a reasonable chance that PA and any one of VA, OH or FL will get called fairly early for Obama. If that happens, I think it's pretty much a done deal.
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
just chilling at home
Watching the news channels and looking at the blogs. If it gets too depressing I'll go to sleep relatively early, otherwise I am ready to watch and chat.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Going to a small election night get-together
...with some blue-bar types eager to celebrate an Obama win :-) I will be taking my laptop and will be checking in here though.
skymutt: accept no substitutes!
Have a plan B... ;-)
n/t
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Don't start an internet war in Asia.
How China Will Use Cyber Warfare To Leapfrog Foes
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Some of Obama's real agenda slips out...
Palin Unleashes New Attack Against Obama On Coal...
Audio: Obama Tells Paper He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry...
VIDEO...
Official calls comments 'unbelievable'...
President of Ohio Coal Association Says 'Disaster'...
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
And Howard Cosell hates small NFL players.
Obama was referring to the construction of new coal burning facilities correct?
Obama was fairly vague and definitely didn't dive into any details. Are you running with the same assumptions as Palin because Barack has a "(D)" next to his name? Or are there any actual links that go into the meat and potatoes of the topic at Dredge or RedState?
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
How can you look at this map and say honestly America...
...wants Barack Obama to be our nations leader?
It's crazy! It's sad...
There is no question this is a center right country, all of whom are getting hosed!
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
You do realize...
...that this is a hypothetical map of a potential McCain victory, right? It's not the current state of polling.
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
Still, 1 or 2 state difference.
n/t
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
1 or 2 state difference
is all it takes. Should we be basing electoral votes on geographical size? This map shows it better:
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
This is a great map to give to your Republican friends
People vote.
Land doesn't vote.
Acreage is meaningless.
8 million citizens crammed into Manhattan are rightly worth much more than 600,000 citizens spread across Wyoming.
Your vote is not worth more because you take up more space. It is the most ridiculous of right-wing memes.
I survived the Bush Administration
Only if one values the opinions of anyone who ...
would willingly choose to live in Manhattan, but that's another angle on the whole "more important" meme. Obviously they are "more important" in your opinion, I don't necessarily share that opinion. They are, however, more numerically significant from a voting perspective for sure.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4That's hardly fair
Nothing in PM's comment said anything about individual's value or importance. In fact, you are the one who seems to be making a value judgement, indicating that people who actually enjoy living in close proximity to other human beings, and interact with a diverse array of cultures every day, have less valuable opinions than those who choose to live isolated on a farm in the middle of nowhere. :P
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
8,000,000 > 600,000
Even someone as contrarian as you, GR, can understand the basic point.
Interesting that you put the words "more important" in quotes.... as if to reference a direct quote by me, but nowhere in my post did those words appear.
Is that how transparent you are with your straw men now? You invent quotes in order to knock them down?
You used to be more intellectually honest than that. I guess seeing the real failure of every philosophy you believe in proven to be wrong is wearing down on you.
I survived the Bush Administration
I'm guessing GR was showing
I'm guessing GR was showing homage to dry Coulteresque comedy.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
So we should just resolve ourselves to...
San Francisco, Detroit, NYC, and their liberal elitist and minority populations deciding elections for the whole country?
If Obama wins, it could be the best thing to happen to this country, as it will spark a revolution, and we will have to be real about how we allowed it to be taken away and deal with it.
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Are you serious?
Do you really think population size should not be a factor in determining electoral college votes? Should every state just get two votes or something in your mind? What are you actually suggesting here?
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
So... you are saying that MINORITY populations are not worth
one-man-one-vote?
Shoudl New Yorkers be counted as 3/5th of a person?
Bottom line... the voter living in a slum in NY City is worth *JUST AS MUCH* as you are when it comes to voting.
Your post is the most un-American thing I've read in a while.
I survived the Bush Administration
"Land" doesn't vote.... people do
When Bush wins 51-48, those on the left weren't "getting hosed".
But when Obama wins 53-46 tomorrow (and he will), those on the right are "getting hosed".
I survived the Bush Administration
Obsurd when you have a whole state vote one way...
...and because of two cities in it - the whole state goes to one candidate.
Travel through California, it is a moderate conservative state, why should all those people be disenfranchised via a insane city like SF?
WHatever?
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Wow
One-person / one-vote isn't fair, huh? Isn't that kind of a "traditional American value?"
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
The States can fix that
That "problem" can be solved by proportional allocation of electoral votes. Nothing is stopping them from doing that.
I say "problem" in quotes because it often seems like it depends on which side one is on at the time...I don't recall a lot of whining by the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 about this "problem."
Exactly
The next best thing to an Obama landslide would be a close election won by Obama. Then maybe Republicans would actually be on board for removing the electoral college altogether.
We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
How about if we give the moderate conservatives 1 vote &
the liberals 1/2 vote each.
Now there would be your permanent republican majority.
Well, that comment shows that
Well, that comment shows that even at this late date it's possible for someone to come up with a strong contender for stupidest 2008 election-related comment anywhere (for reasons already given by others who were too kind to add "Duh!"). Hooo Boy. Big, big bag of stupid.
Its not either BR!
This is a direct result of poor immigration policy and a number of other domestic social issues I won't go into because you are too "smart" to understand them.
Suffice it to say, by and large, where ever you go in this country, you are in conservative territory, the inner cities are driving the national agenda, and that is not equitable.
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Cue Twilight Zone theme
Cue Twilight Zone theme music.
Because, Rd Wing,
People, not acres, vote. The maps are interesting but also somewhat misleading in two respects-
1) the size of a state has nothing to do with its population
2) even in Utah the Dems are going to get a good 30-40% of the vote. Same with the republicans in DC.
Right now it looks like Obama wil win the popular vote by 6%. How can this be a center right country when the *majority* is voting for a candidate you believe to be extremely liberal?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
McCain 48/Obama 47 in Zogby overnight poll!
It's only a one night poll, but John Zogby reports that his Friday night survey shows McCain leading
Obama by 48 to 47. It's only a one night poll (as opposed to the usual three day moving average) but it is 1,000 interviews.
Rassmussen is coming out later today with some REAL TIGHT numbers!
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Zogby showing Obama up by 7.1 now....
the "Halloween night" one-day sample in his three-day tracker showed McCain up 48-47..... with a +/- 6.0 margin of error.
Whatever you can hang your hat on, RW. LOL.
(you need professional help)
I survived the Bush Administration
Can we leave off such parentheticals, please?
Thanks!
P.S. Nice to see you around again. Hope you're right about the election prediction above.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Rasmussen shows it 52-46 for Obama..+1 for Obama since yesterday
LOL
I survived the Bush Administration
Watch closely PM... Obama has over polled the whole cycle!
n/t
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
No... he really hasn't..... he underpolled in just as many
primary states as he overpolled.
He was polling at +7 in Wisconsin and won by +18.
He was polling at +5 in Georgia and won by +20.
He was polling at -7 in Indiana and lost by -1.
He was polling at +5 in NC and won by +11.
Yes... NH was wrong. And Texas was off by 3 points. Other than that, your premise is false.
I survived the Bush Administration
Obama's grandmother has died.
Obama's grandmother has died. Very sad coincidence.
While this election is exciting I will be glad it'll be over.
I particularly dislike the commercials for the propositions. Yea, the candidate ones suck, but you expect them to bend words to serenade the candidate. Out here in CA they are just lying all over themselves over the propositions on the ballot, which you would think would be fairly self explanatory, right?
Naaa.
Dilemma: I don't want the
Dilemma: I don't want the Democrats to get to 60 in the Senate or to increase their domination of the House (assuming Obama is going to win the presidency), yet I hate Mitch McConnell and I'm outraged by that "godless" ad by Elizabeth Dole and by that "anti-American" rant by Rep. Bachman, so I very much want all of them to lose, and I will indeed be rooting for all three to lose regardless of the former concern.
I'll root for Mahoney to lose
to balance out Bachman, and I could be convinced to throw in Murtha too (although I don't think he'll lose). Probably more if I think about it.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Murtha will suffice -- deal
Murtha will suffice -- deal !
By the way, would you like to see Democrats have the presidency, a dominant majority in the House and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate? I know (well, assume) you're a Democrat, but do you consider it a negative if the Democrats end up such great dominance that they have little/no need to compromise and can get pretty much anything they want (as long as the party is united on it)?
voting info
If you want quick info about down ticket races, check out Vote-smart.org, and the local League of Women Voters.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Michael Savage conspiracy theory
I heard Michale Savage on the radio last night peddling a quite extreme conspiracy theory (putting McCain's ACORN conspiracy theory to shame). Savage is claiming that Obama and Ayers are part of some secret cabal planning to install a Marxist dictatorship and talking about "liquidating" 25 million Americans.
His radio show claims 8-10 million listeners per week.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Michael Savage....
Sociopath:
A person with a personality disorder manifesting itself in extreme anti-social attitudes, behavior and a lack of conscience.
See also: Rush Limbaugh
I'm only half stupid
Taken directly from your own diagnosis papers I presume... ;-)
n/t
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
They're serious too.
People I know on the far right actually think they believe that and yet they're sitting by and doing almost nothing, talk about cowards.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
it's a matter of timing
There'd be no point in rebelling yet, since it's not a done deal.
I figure the prime times would be:
1) Right after it is clear that Obama has won
2) Right around Obama's inaguation
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Savage is actually fairly funny
I almost never listen to him but when I do, he is very intelligent though rabid. With enough time into the Obama presidency many of us might become as rabid as him though. We'll see.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
if he starts throwing people into concentration camps...
If Savages predictions come true, and we see people being thrown into concentration camps by his order, I'm sure most of us will become rabidly anti-Obama.
That's a big part of the reason I'm not concerned about an Obama dictatorship (aside from the fact that there is no reason to believe he has any such intentions): I have some faith in American institutions and the American people. Plenty of Obama's supporters are agitated about concentration of power in the Presidency, and won't cut Obama any slack if he continues the Bush/McCain power-grab.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Certainly
If people got thrown into camps like Savage claims, I'd run down to Associated Gunsmiths and stock up.
Is Savage so stupid he believes his own BS or is he just being disingenuous and trying to rally people to his cause? Neither option puts him in a positive light.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
You are assuming that he won't close these first ...
When he starts pushing to close gun shops in a wholesale way, that's the start. But I don't really expect him to do any of these things, BTW.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4I hope he is not
a prophet... :) He might be paranoid but sometimes paranoids are right. Like most Americans I hope is wrong.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Ummm... does Nov 8th, 1917 ring any bells...
n/t
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Lusitania?
Am I right? What's your point?
Hasn't Bush demonstrated that Presidents don't need a cause (let alone a declaration) to go to war?
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Ok, Kool-Aid party in here!
I guess I will check out some other threads.
We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida